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Statistics Tell a Story
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Добавлен 19 апр 2011
This is a site primarily about the probability of events happening. It may challenge the status quo from time to time. But sometimes the status quo needs to be challenged. Especially with p-values.
Divisional picks NFL (writeup in description)
Not able to do a video but wanted to show updated odds based on my model. My model has Hou as 30:1 to win the Super Bowl. (you can still get 50 to 1). It also has them as having a 35% chance of beating KC. I know this seems high. Models are imperfect. But KC has simply not been impressive this year. They are 11 and 0 in one score games this year, which is a record. They were the first team since 1925 (when the NFL first "opened" to win at least 13 games, and not score 30 points in a game. Pat Mahomes has averaged about 7 yards per pass attempt the last TWO years, after typically averaging 8 yards per pass attempt. Their OL is about as bad as it has ever been. Travis Kelce, is dare I say, ...
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Видео
Super Bowl predictions
Просмотров 6921 день назад
Tune in to see what teams and players (Super Bowl MVP) might have the best equity.
Week 17 picks (in Description)
Просмотров 38Месяц назад
This is the last week for picks. Because of time constraints, not able to make a video. I went back and checked, and I am 33-28-2, and counting vigorish on the games, it is good for plus 2.1 units. That is not too bad, being that I "pigeonholed" myself into bet365 lines only. I actually finished a little better than what i have shown here, as I sometimes found a line a half point better. anyway...
Was Dan Campbell's onside kick call as bad as the media says it was? Was it even bad?
Просмотров 47Месяц назад
I crunch some numbers to analyze his early fourth quarter decision to have an onside kick against the Bills
week 15 Sunday picks
Просмотров 21Месяц назад
I have said this a few times, but after 4 and 1 last week, I find this another tough week. when the model goes one way, trends or injuries go the other way. But I have two plays, Jax is getting 3.5 laying 115, and my numbers counting injuries suggest they should be a slight favorite. that said, Mac jones makes this a volatile game (pick 6s make a bigger difference than people realize). he has 5...
Week 15 NFL- tonights game
Просмотров 27Месяц назад
San Francisco is laying 2.5 -120 against the Rams. They held the Bears to 4!! total yards in the first half last week, the fewest in decades. They were like a caged animal, letting out all of their aggression. It will continue against a Rams team that is going to be somewhat emotionally spent after their thrilling win against the Bills. I am on the 49ers. a few more picks later in the week for ...
Week 13 NFL picks
Просмотров 252 месяца назад
Tune in to see who I like for week 13 in the NFL. Happy Thanksgiving everyone
Week 12 Thursday night game
Просмотров 92 месяца назад
will have a few more later this week, but I am on cleveland plus 3.5 tonight at -110.
week 11 pick in description
Просмотров 582 месяца назад
I find this a tough week. I am using as my skip week in my pool. I do like the Bills. If ever there was a team that is emotionally drained, its gotta be the unbeaten Chiefs, who are by my two models, the 4th (or 6th) best team in football. they have won 7 one score games. they are the two time champs. they showed letdown last week and got lucky with a win, which is good as it sets up this game ...
week 10 picks (in description)
Просмотров 112 месяца назад
Giants (early game in Germany) -6.5, -115, Denver 7.5, -115, houston 3.5, -115, New orleans 3.5, -110
Week 9 NFL picks picks in description
Просмотров 203 месяца назад
NYG 4 and tampa tomorrow night 9 (Both are -110)
Did Kyle Shanahan make the right decision electing to receive in overtime?
Просмотров 5611 месяцев назад
Did Kyle Shanahan make the right decision electing to receive in overtime?
Yeah Jamo at 80:1 could be good value. Obviously it's far out but he is the kind of guy that can take a short pass to the house. He could make one big play
Gibbs is 15 to 1, st. brown 25 to 1, and williams 80 to 1. assume for every 20 times they win the super bowl, goff wins 12 of them, gibbs 4, st. brown 3 and williams 1. this actually makes it a real tough call for which one to bet if indeed you lean to betting a lion. interestingly, I checked real quick, but I believe while st brown had 4 100 yard games, and williams had 3, the next 3 highest were williams, giving him 6 of the 10 ten between them. certainly brown has the better chance but he would need to be OVER 3 *0 to 25) times as likely for him to be preferred. of course, this assumes there is equity on the lions to begin with, but even if you put the lions at a 25% chance of winning and not 31, i think jameson has equity, and ever so slightly more than other lions, but I am guessing, and we are spliting hairs.
Another thing because of short field its possible Detroit would get an extra possession on a failed onside attempt. I think its at least a wash if not slight EV to onside kick. At least he went for it unlike Tomlin punting down 2 TD in 4th Quarter inside the 50. That was awful
this is a great point. subtle advantage, because as the possessions go up, it behooves the lions. i.e. think of an EXTREME example.. say 10 possessions to 8. yes, impossible for that to happen in the fourth quarter, but it provides more scenarios where the Lions can get two more TDs
People who been wrong about Dan Campbell were looking for a reason to trash him. The other factor the lions lost 3 defensive players and already had no depth so even if he does it and holds them to fg it's a win.
yes, you are right. 2 TDS still wins. so, being down 10 is different than say, being down 13...
GREAT ANALYSIS!!
picks in description
actually, Baltimore is laying 8.5 -115
Not able to make a video, at least other than my intro, but my 5 picks. this year, I am going to go off of bet365 when I post, thus, I do not get the benefit of a hard line earlier in the week. I will also put the juice if it is different than -110. this week, in no particular order, TENN +4, IND+3, CAR +3.5 (-108), WAS +4 (-112), SEA (-6 (-115)
❤❤❤
Quite a serious social and political comment, even more relevant nowadays, given that the country seems to have gone to hell in a handbasket.
The song's message is more recognizable today. Though it was written about the bicentennial and the over commercialization the celebration was. Though the Boomer youth who saw this celebration as young adults would probably be appalled by how corrupt and Commercialized sweet madame blue has become. Hell we have a failed Reality TV star trying to get into the white house for a second term.. that wouldn't have flied in the 70s America. We went downhill quick with big brands seeping their roots into our democratic process that it benefits their desires than that of the people. Want to make America Great again? GET RID OF SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS AND LAZY POLITICIANS, WHILE "WE THE PEOPLE" STILL CAN.
One of my all time favorites,brings me back to cruzin colby and hangin with my friends,
#1 styx song
Not to nitpick, but I believe the line is "Suppressed in your dues" (over-taxation), not "Dressed in your jewels". And if that's not the line it ought to be!
This song is actually about the United States. 🇺🇸
Great music helps 👍 we'll get through this Time
I did what I could, you were so beautiful im the same as i always have been one Night...you finish the sentence....😂😂
Very nice tune
This song reminds me of when I was real crazy over a guy who wanted nothing to do with me and ghosted.
I never knew the reason they DISBANDED, BUT IT BUMMED ME OUT!
With YOUR heart and soul Also His Direction continue your life with Love... Leslie Hiles here for you 🤗💋🤟
Here is one of the many calculators you can find for test of one proportion. www.medcalc.org/calc/test_one_proportion.php
very popular cowboys trend - choking (will die out after jerry jones is no longer the owner of the cowboys)
Nice explanation, was able to understand all of it!
I guess I should have waited til the end to comment but even 20th best team is not that far off from 28th? Id argue the difference is pretty negligible. They are bad or at best mediocre either way And yeah AB and Pickens are very different people and player profiles. AB worked as hard as Tom Brady he just had a screw loose, whereas Pickens seems lazy and unmotivated. Pickens cant run routes that well and really is just a jump ball catch guy. Brown was a complete receiver could basically do it all
okay, lets leave it at mediocre, leaning bad... but the Steelers find a way though to be in ball games. I cant say they have bad coaching.. at least at this point. I think Tomlin is bad at picking out coaches, namely offensive coordinators. yeah, 9 and 8, and 8 and 8 might not mean much as far as winning super bowls, but I have to put credence at a guy who has never had a losing season. it simply means they are in most games......lets keep in mind the context. I am not suggesting that Tomlin is a top 8 coach (though I might have at the beginning of the year). I am not suggesting they keep him at the end of the year.. maybe time to go. but 20th thru 28th, take your pick.... they are not much below the Bengals, and the scope of this is simply, power rankings aside, its all about technical analysis here.... I will take tomlin off of 3 straight losses against jake browning (3 wins a in a row I believe) where the clock is about to strike midnight...
Hey John I don't know Steelers may not be bottom 5 but I'd say bottom 7 or so? They are like 27th in ypp and 21st in ypp against. They have bad coaching and unmotivated players it seems as well the last few weeks they have buckled. Of course ypp is just one metric and I used raw stats I don't have any adjusted calcs (no time ) but I don't think it's too inaccurate to say they are at least close to bottom 5
AWESOME INTRO MUSIC‼️
Thanks 💯
I notice that you went 4-1 and are on a roll of late. However, you have won a few games with spots that might not have been available to the general public. What would your record be if you got the widely available spots? Thanks
I forgot to mention 5 over unders that I like: Currently widely available lines: Ind pit under 41.5 Cleveland Chicago under 37.5 Nyg new orleans under 39.5 NYJ mia under 36.5 Baltimore jax under 42
I have changed two picks: With Philadelphia, I am concerned over Jalen Hurts not being 100% (he was taken out of the game for a few plays last week), and also over the fact that Philly has had to play a murderous stretch the last few weeks. Although I often think a loss gets something out of their system, there may be a hangover looming here. I also am taking out Seattle. When I first looked at the line (10.5-Monday morning, I thought something was up..the books are luring you to Seattle. (remember, no matter how smart somebody thinks they are, the books (IN GENERAL know more than you-- and me :-) ). I found a small trend leaning Seattle (plays on decent teams losing 3 in a row) and why I liked them to begin with , but that is not enough to overcome the fact that San Francisco beats up on teams. I am exchanging these two teams with Cincinatti +0.5 (small trend playing against Indy, who was won 4 in a row) and the Jets +5.5, which has alwayas been a contrarion play (otherwise called a very "trappy" line).
While I agree with the basic approach, I think there are some additional important points to mention where your analysis makes broad simplifications. Please correct me if I'm wrong it misunderstood you on any of these points: 1. You used the probability of getting 27 batters in a row out. However, that alone does not constitute a no-hitter because a pitcher can get 27 outs in a row across multiple games. So really, the probability should be lower than you computed. Even then, a no-hitter does not count if the team does not win. Furthermore, no hitters can require more than 27 outs in the case of extra inning games. 2. At-bats are not independent events. A multitude of confounding factors exist, including the way a pitcher pitches with runners on base and the way a hitter hits with runners on base. It would be interesting to see the numbers if fewer simplifications were made.
Ryan, thanks very much for posting. for point number 1, you are correct that one can get 27 outs in a row across multiple games. however, I think I accounted for that in my premise of how many STARTS I assume. Since I did it that way, I ultimately looked at how many times he would get 27 outs in a row in the assumed number of starts, so that in that sense, I did not overstate the likelihood of a no-hitter. In essence, I "started over" each game as I should have. point number 2, that is true that at bats are not independent events (at least we intuitively believe that to be the case). however, it is basically impossible to take into account the points you mentioned because we just don't enough. Regarding fewer simplifications, I agree with you. As a mathematician, one wants to be as GRANULAR (detailed as possible). But we can only be as detailed as is reasonable. Without knowing further information, we would be taking wild stabs at best. but getting back to the independence --this study seems to suggest that each pitcher/batter matchup is not independent in that Ryans 7 no hitters suggest that "when he is on, he is on". If you have ever taken hypothesis testing, look at it this way. We might assume something is a 50-50 proposition. We prove ultimately that it is not. Thus, going forward, we remove the original assumption (at least in theory). Up to now, nobody, to my knowledge has ever proven, at least with pitching, that a pitcher gets stronger as he continues to no hit batters. But lets pretend we go back in our historical data base, and conclude that. (i.e. perhaps the average pitcher has a 70 % chance of getting an out, but once having gone 5 innings of no-hit ball, we find it to be 74%, and SIGNIFICANTLY different). We could NOW say that we have PROVEN dependence, at least under this scenario. We (or I) would then rethink the probability of Ryan's 7 no-hitter and make it a higher probability than I did. But, your points, notwithstanding, at this point, I don't think we bring dependence into the equation, so I think this is a reasonable stab at it. hope that makes sense. feel free to comment further.
I reread this, and there are a few things I did not quite respond to. one is that a game could go extra innings. I believe though if a pitcher goes 9 innings without giving up a hit, and gives up a hit, it still counts as a no hitter. and your second point, I did not COMPLETELY cover. yes, there are other confounding factors such as the way a pitcher pitches with runners on base, and in fact, the chances of getting TWO outs with one batter, so he could pitch "poorly" with a walk, and while it does not count as an out, he gets the potential bonus, so to speak of two for the price of one (double play). a few years ago, I might have tried to program this with all the caveats taken into consideration, but being a mediocre programmer, I would have been pulling my hair out. with chatgpt, this might not be so bad :-) again, thanks for the questions.
Note, I have changed one of my picks.. from Tampa Bay to the LA Chargers, getting 3.5 points against the Ravens
Your analysis is off the charts, sir. Very well done.
thank you very much, feel free to check others on my site. have a good one.
Great RUclips!
Thank you very much
John, I like your videos when you explain your calculations.
statistics lie exceed expectations
yes, statistics can certainly lie also. Mark Twain said so. not sure what you mean by 'exceed expectations'
and in case you are wondering why I did not have the Steelers last week--I believed the Rams to be closer to a 6 point favorite, model wise. I was actually close to taking the Rams, but I did not want to in light of the trend. so, coincidentally, I figured the "real spot" should be close to the 3 points that it was. This all said, the Steelers might have the worst offense ever for a 4 and 2 team. They are doing it with mirrors. (and a little bit of Mike Tomlin, and a lot of TJ Watt).
a few minor things. one is that I had written 0.5 point underdog instead of a pickem I did so because I orginally put the trend as being worth 2.5 points, and not the 3 I used. secondly at the end, my calculation showed a 0.25, and it should have said -0.25, but because of symmetry, we would get the same area, which is .0987 (found on the chart). please let me know if you have any question. Thanks for watching
two comments. I said I think the browns are going to let down against frisco. I meant to say that they would let down after their win against frisco. also, I do not believe i mentioned the broncos opponent, which are the packers, and their qb is jordan love, who is not off to a good start in his career.
Everyone always talks about his lifetime K's record but his hits per 9 lifetime record is almost if not more insane. The fact that the next 2 guys (Koufax and Kershaw) combined innings still fall shy of Ryan's total. The only guy with 3000 plus innings close to Ryan is Randy Johnson and he's 24th on the list. Just goes to show just how unhittable he was.
yes, I agree. he led the league in hits per nine innings a staggering 12 times, double the next guy. thank you for pointing that out.
Thaanks! I'm glad I found your channel! Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us! 😄
Thanks Julia, much appreciated. more to come. I want to do more on Bayes theorem. It is a somewhat difficult topic, but very important in the world of statistics, and I think it is going to "gain steam" in the near future.
oops I bet the one that lost, but it was obvious that they won all stats but the score and turnovers.
4 out of 5, pretty good 😊
Aw this song play'in in basement on the turn table as fam & friends play'in pool. That Styx album playing that song, my Gran Melrose won that album, on a music radio show. She was what ever #caller. See Gran Melrose had a spirited keen whismy for each grand child. She didn't have much in finances to buy us gifts and we grand children all just truly loved her for being whimsy Gran Melrose sharing no matter what. How sweet she felt a nudge one day~ thinking of me. She decided to tuned into a Rock Station, she thought I would listen too and some how always knew her tuning in there would be a call in to win an Album of a Rock Band. Many stories of Walk in Beauty Whimsy Gran Melrose endearing... The day I answered door yelling to Family, "Oh here we go again Gran Melrose won us something? I hope not another case of Apricot Shampoo!! Aw nope it was for me the Styx album, that my friends brother played weeks before, while playing pool at there house..❤ Now Gran Melrose gifted me Styx album to play pool at my house too... :) Weave of Life Beloved GM 🕸 :🌹🐺
Volume is too low😢😢
Thank yoiu.. will keep that in mind for future
The cross ha sfallen to cleave the nation , only truth may unite us . Goat or sheep ? Unify and please dont lie . Do not divide us , unite us =common ground .
Real life sheep since every reset and fake histories. Greatest. Of. All. Time. in our hearts and imaginations until we discover Most High Creator and truly see the G.O.A.T.
heavensz whore .?
by the way, I misspoke. power is not beta. it is 1 minus beta. not really germane to what I was conveying, as the numbers are all the same.
Thanks for the informative video!
you are welcome. Thanks for watching
Waiting for a Visa? Semper Fi!
But… isn’t it like saying everyone charged with a rare crime without other evidence is innocent as any given person is statistically unlikely to have committed it?
well. this gets a little tricky. the rareness of the crime can be evidence itself. that is one reason circumstantical evidence can hold up in court. the whole idea is that for those circumstances to have happened would be "too rare" to have happened by chance
I don’t think so, since if the probabilities in this case would had been inverted the argument for convicting would be as strong as it was for acquittal without any other evidence
@@lemao7010 I am not sure if you are disagreeing with me or the person I responded to. it seems you concur with what I said-- in a nutshell, one could argue that she was guilty because of rare evidence, so to speak, but by the same token one could argue she was not guilty due to different rare evidence.... without any other evidence being introduced. not 100 percent sure what you mean by inverted......
I saw Styx in the mid '70s at Shadowland Ballroom on Lake Michigan's Silver Beach. Great memories of them and that concert. Times were different and they put on a great concert.